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Conjoint Analysis

Introduction
Products usually have many attributes, such as price, color, style and its unique function, etc. Then which attribute of products are the one that consumers concern most? Further analyzed, the essential of this question is: How important is each attribute to consumers? What specialties that the product has will be most possibly accepted by the consumers with the same cost? For such kind of questions, qualitative research method as well as the method of getting direct statements from respondents were usually adopted in the traditional market research. These methods, however, could not get a precise analysis results. Conjoint Analysis is produced aiming at solving this problem. It can simulate the trade-off process that the consumers give up some attributes for satisfying some demands in reality. Its results would be more objective and accurate.

Confirm the attributes of the products and its level
Design prompts ( Concept card, pictures) for virtual products by Sawtooth.
Find out the consumers' choices and comments on different virtual products by PAPI/computer
Outputs through CBC or ACA software
1. The relative importance of different products' attributes and values of these attributes in different levels.
2. Market segmentation by the benefits that the consumers pay attention to in the process of purchasing.
3. The optimal combination of products' attributes and prices.
4. To estimated possible market share gained by different combinations of products' attributes/prices under various competition circumstances.

CBR's Conjoint analysis
CBR adopted the most authoritative Conjoint analysis software-Sawtooth- package to do multiple types of research analysis including Adaptive Conjoint Analysis (ACA), Choice Based Conjoint (CBC) ,etc.
· CBR Conjoint analysis can be implemented by PAPI or on computer interface.

Sample for D Segment Car Buyer CBC
Which model would you like to purchase?

Accord

3.0L
AT
¥350,000

Regal

3.0L
MT
¥330,000

Audi A6

2.8L
AT
¥410,000

Passat

2.8L
MT
¥280,000
None:I wouldn't purchase any of these

Utility Estimation
Through conjoint analysis, we can accurately know consumers' preference to each type of product, each price level, and each brand, and which attributes play more important roles, etc.
Attributes Importance
43
23
-2 -5

Brand

Price Emissions Transmission
Price Preferences
-14

22

9
-4
 

20k

25k 30k 35k
Brand Preferences
19
8
-3 -9
Regal Passat Accord Audi
Emissions Preferences
-11.3

6.5

2.8L

3.0L

Market Share Simulation
Price change
With Warranty?
-$5000 -$2500 +$2500 +$5000 -$5000 -$2500 +$2500 +$5000
No Yes
15%
6%
-7% -22% 20%
11%
-2% -17%
   
Current Market Share (Data will be set up by actual market situation in the process of conjoint analysis design)
      27%

Simulated share if prices/attributes are changed



Adopt different research model by different research term?
CBR provides the clients different conjoint analysis models according to their specific research objectives. :
· CBC is a research model based on the consumers ' choice , by which the conner only needs to simply make a choice in a series of virtual products to analyze consumers' internal preference .
· CBC is suitable for many research circumstances. Advantages: The testing scene is much more real and closed to consumers' actual choices. Disadvantages: It usually needs more samples to get accurate results for assuring the precision of research.

· ACA is a model very suitable for multi-attributes (more than 6 attributes), or attribute levels, which can save the time and relieve burden of respondents. Also, it can get satisfying results even through few samples.
· Since ACA has a certain of warp to estimate price factors, it is not usually for special price test.

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GAP Model

Introduction
Gap model is used for analyzing consumers' demands by CBR. Its essential idea is to seek the key demand points that drive consumers to purchase the products by analyzing the relationships between the present demand gap and future purchase, and forecast possible purchasing rate under different gap level according to demand gap size.
· Firstly get the key benefits that lead consumers to future purchase based on the previous experience (Specialty of products or service)
· Then, find out the consumers' expectation at this key benefit and the present satisfaction status. Set up the causality model and use SEM to analyze if these demand points has causality with purchasing intention.
· If the causality model comes into existence, we will further analyze contribution of each demand point on purchasing intention. By Logit, and other statistical methods, the purchasing probability of consumers will be analyzed under different demand gap circumstances.

Gap between the present products (Service) and expecting products
Different level of gap will lead to different purchasing desires.

Case -What factors lead consumers upgrade present DC
Research indicates: The main reason why consumer upgrade the present DC products is that they are dissatisfied with pixels, and pursue zoom capacity.
Estimation of model coefficients
Current Pixel
Expected pixel
Pixel GPA
0.34

Pixel is the most important factor leading to repurchase
Current LCD
Expected LCD
LCD GPA
0.16
Repurchase Intention
Current battery
Expected battery
Battery GPA
0.10
Current zoom
Expected zoom
Zoom GPA
0.17

Zoom are the secondary factor in configures
Notes: For protecting the client's benefits, the data in the case has been modulated, which is only used for possible data output.


The gap means the ideal DSC's configures of the respondents minus their current DSC ‘s configures.
Gap of pixel Possibility of re-purchase
Percentage (%)
Lower than current pixel 0.0
Same as current pixel 0.8
1M higher than current 2.9
2M higher than current 3.0
3M higher than current 4.0
4M higher than current 15.6
5M higher than current 30.8
Notes: For protecting the client's benefits, the data in the case has been modulated, which is only used for possible data output.

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Decision Tree Model

Characteristics of decision tree analysis
· Decision Tree Analysis is one of basic modern data mining methods, which synthetically compare independent variables and automatically choose those variables that affect objective mostly, and therefore find the optimal classifying mode.

CBR successfully developed a series of application modes based on decision tree technology, which can help the clients to do the followings.
· Market segmentation optimization : Help clients choose the optimal market segmentation based on decision tree results.
·Gain Analyses : Analyzing the potential and sales efficiency of each segmented market to help the clients' choose the optimal segmented market.
· Long term application : Building a defining regulation for market segmentation based on decision tree to define the classification of unknown objectives and therefore strongly supporting the clients' data base marketing.

Illustration of Decision Tree Analysis
Phase 1. Choose all possible segmented variables à choose all target variables which support decision
Phase 2. Choose decision analysis methods à system operation, automatic inspection
Phase 3. Export decision tree graph à Export Gain Table
Input all possible variables
Demographical variable 1

Demographical variable 2

Demographical variable n...

Behavior variable 1

Behavior variable 2

Behavior variable k...

Variable...

Set target variables
Decision tree analysis system
Choose decision tree analysis methods(CHAID. C&RT...)
Export decision tree results


Research Case
· Clients will face various possible segmentation modes in some IT product research: geographical segmentation, income segmentation, gender segmentation …. Which kind of segmentation is most beneficial for finding potential consumers?
· To find the answer, we choose whether to purchase in next 6 months or not as target variable, and take purchasers as the research target.
· For independent variables, we add as many demographical variables, which possibly affect purchasing behavior, as possible: age, income, city, gender, marriage, education …
· Please find analyzing results vide post.
Analysis Indicates: Age is the maximal variable for consumer purchasing plan
 
Gain 9 ultimate nodes (Market segmentation)Node 4 represents the highest yield market.

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